[Micron] Outpacing Samsung! Micron Becomes NVIDIA’s "First Choice" for HBM4—Is the $500 Target Next?
The capital of the semiconductor world is flowing toward one name: Micron Technology. Micron has pulled off a stunning upset, leapfrogging its Korean rivals to become the primary supplier of HBM4 for NVIDIA’s next-gen "Rubin" architecture.
The era of being the "perpetual third" is over. Micron has reclaimed the throne of the memory world. Today, we analyze the strategic explosion of Micron and why Wall Street is betting on a $500 price target.
1. Performance Shock: "This isn't a manufacturer; it's an AI Powerhouse"
Micron’s Fiscal 2026 guidance has transcended the metrics of traditional manufacturing.
The 75% Gross Margin Miracle: Leveraging its near-monopoly on HBM4 36GB shipments, Micron has reported a staggering 74.9% Gross Margin. This is a software-like profit margin, proving that Micron’s technology now dictates global market pricing.
EPS $12.20 (200% Above Estimates): Following a massive Q2 beat, analysts are aggressively raising price targets, with the most optimistic bulls calling for $516 per share.
2. Core Issue: The Tech Counter-Attack that Rattled Samsung & SK Hynix
① Dominating NVIDIA "Rubin" with HBM4 12H In Q1 2026, Micron became the first in the industry to ship mass-production samples of HBM4 36GB 12-High for NVIDIA’s "Vera Rubin" accelerators. While competitors struggle with yields, Micron’s 1-gamma (1γ) process has delivered flawless stability. Micron’s HBM4 capacity is already reportedly sold out through the end of 2026.
② 1γ (1-gamma) DRAM: The EUV Victory By successfully integrating cutting-edge EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography at its Taiwan facilities, Micron has stabilized the 1γ node. This process offers 25% better power efficiency and 30% higher productivity. This technological lead is also allowing Micron to capture the "On-Device AI" market (Smartphones/PCs) at a record pace.
3. Supply Chain Disruption: The Data Center "Black Hole"
2026 marks the first year where Data Center demand consumes over 50% of the entire memory market.
The "Sold Out" Reality: Tech titans (Microsoft, Google, Meta) are reportedly offering billions in prepayments just to secure Micron’s HBM4 and high-capacity Enterprise SSDs.
Long-term Supply Deficit: Micron management has stated that "demand will outstrip supply throughout 2026." This permanent "Sellers' Market" provides the strongest possible floor for MU stock.
4. Soobin’s Final Conclusion: "Micron is Now the Infrastructure of AI"
In 2026, Micron is no longer a follower. The synergy between early HBM4 mass production and EUV-based 1γ DRAM has turned Micron into the "NVIDIA of the memory industry."
All investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the individual.
Thank you for reading.
SkyBlueShirt Soobin
Updated April 24, 2026 ㅣ Micron HBM4 Monopoly & $500 Target Price Analysis
Sources
Micron Investor Relations: Fiscal 2026 Q2 Earnings & Strategic Guidance (2026.03)
TechInsights: Micron 1-gamma Node Benchmarks and HBM4 Advantage (2026.02)
Barron's: Why Micron is the Top "Strong Buy" for the AI Supercycle (2026.04)
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