[2026 BTC Outlook] Bitcoin Testing the 100M KRW Support: Causes of the Recent Slump and 3 Major Risk Factors

 

As Bitcoin retreats from its all-time high of $126,000 and begins testing the critical psychological support level of 100 million KRW (approx. $71,000), investors are facing a period of high uncertainty. In this "risk-off" environment, I will analyze the current state of Bitcoin and whether it can maintain its status as "Digital Gold."

1. Basic Profile

• Asset Name: Bitcoin (BTC)

• Current Price: ~102,160,000 KRW / $71,300 (As of Feb 5, 2026)

• Market Cap: Approx. $1.4 Trillion

• 2026 Performance: Down ~23% year-to-date (Trading 42% below the October peak)

• Key Feature: Since the approval of Spot ETFs, Bitcoin has become heavily influenced by institutional capital flows, behaving more like a "High-Beta Risk Asset" than a decoupled hedge.

2. Main Drivers of the Slump (Current Pressure)

• Macro Shift & Hawkish Fed: The nomination of a hawkish figure for the next Fed Chair has dampened hopes for aggressive rate cuts. This has strengthened the US Dollar, exerting immediate downward pressure on Bitcoin.

• Global Risk-Off Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global growth have triggered a flight to safety (USD/Gold), causing capital to rotate out of volatile digital assets.

• ETF Outflows & Forced Liquidations: Recent data shows a reversal in US-listed Bitcoin ETFs, with significant net outflows. High leverage in the crypto market has amplified the downside, triggering a wave of forced liquidations as key support levels broke.

3. Risk Factors (Key Risks)

• Macro Liquidity Contraction: Persistent high interest rates and tightening liquidity are the primary headwinds for Bitcoin’s upward momentum in 2026.

• Korean Taxation Policy (2027): With a 22% crypto tax scheduled for 2027 in South Korea, we anticipate preemptive selling pressure from domestic investors starting in late 2026.

• Shift in the 4-Year Cycle: Unlike previous cycles, the heavy involvement of institutional players means adjustments could be deeper and more correlated with traditional equity markets (especially Tech stocks).

4. Scenario Analysis

[Optimistic Scenario]

• Target Price: Above 150M KRW ($110,000+)

• Outlook: Pivot in Fed policy and stabilization of global geopolitical risks.

• Strategy: Aggressive accumulation if the 100M KRW level holds firmly.

[Base Scenario]

• Target Price: 90M KRW – 115M KRW Range

• Outlook: Consolidation as the market waits for upcoming CPI and Jobs data (Feb 11-13).

• Strategy: Maintain current positions; focus on dollar-cost averaging (DCA).

[Pessimistic Scenario]

• Target Price: Below 80M KRW ($60,000 range)

• Outlook: Recession fears coupled with a massive exit from Spot ETFs.

• Strategy: Increase cash holdings and wait for a confirmed floor.

5. Final Conclusion

Bitcoin in 2026 is no longer just a retail-driven asset. It has evolved into a "Mature Risk Asset" deeply integrated with global macro indicators. Today's slump is painful, but it may be a necessary "healthy correction" to flush out excess leverage before the next leg up.

The 100 million KRW mark is more than just a number; it is the ultimate psychological line in the sand. For now, it is wise to prioritize risk management over FOMO, keeping a close eye on Fed's rate trajectory and ETF inflow/outflow trends.

Investment decisions and responsibilities rest with the individual.

Thank you for reading.

하늘색셔츠 수빈 (Sky blue Shirt Soobin)

2026 Update | Bitcoin (BTC)